The Centre for Analysis and Forecast (CAF) is a research institution under the administration of Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences. It was officially founded according to the Decree No.26/2004/ND-CP issued on 15 January 2005 and the Decree No.109/2012/ND-CP issued on 26 February 2012 by the Government.
At first, working at CAF, there were 12 researchers, who moved from the Vietnam Institute of Economics and some other research institutes. At present, there are 21 researchers, of which 5 ones are PhD; 8 ones are Masters; and 8 ones are BA mainly in economics. They graduated from both Vietnam and overseas universities.
In terms of structure, the Centre for Analysis and Forecasting consists of the Personnel – Administrative Department, the Library-Information Department, and 5 research departments, including: the Department of General Forecasting, the Department of Micro-Application, the Department of Development Issues, the Department of International Integration, and the Department of Institutional Studies.
CAF undertakes some functions, including: 1) To do research and analysis of impacts and forecast socio-economic development tendencies of Vietnam; 2) To provide scientific grounds for socio-economic development strategy-planning and policy-making of the Communist Party and the Government; 3) To provide postgraduate training and consultancy relating to socio-economic issues according to requirements of local as well as overseas institutions/organizations.
According to the Decision of Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences, CAF has to undertake following tasks:
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To submit 5-year research and training strategies and yearly plans to the president of VASS and carry out implementation, after the strategies and plans are approved.
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To do theoretical and empirical research on issues of Vietnam from the perspective of economics; and, to take part in highlighting theoretical and practical key points in socio-economic development of our country.
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To combine research and training activities together, providing graduate and postgraduate training in the major of economics as well as taking part in developing high-qualified human resources to meet the needs of VASS and other institutions/organizations.
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To hold verification and scientific appraisal of socio-economic development programs/projects at different ministries, sectors and locations as assigned by VASS;
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To provide consultancy and carry out public service activities involved with socio-economic issues, in accordance with the Center’s functions and tasks.
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To carry out international cooperation in research and training according to the current regulations.
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To sign and conduct research and scientific applied contracts with local as well as overseas partners according to Vietnam’s law and VASS regulations.
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To exchange academic information with local and international partners in accordance with the regulations; to make management of the Centre’s literature and library; to make scientific publications; and to disseminate research findings as well as academic knowledge
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To be responsible for management of the Institute structure and employment allocation in accordance with occupational titles and personnel; and, to make the assets and budget management, according to the regulations of the Government and VASS.
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To undertake other tasks as assigned by the president of VASS
CAF research activities are carried out through diversified programs and projects; for example, the research programs at the State and Ministerial levels; research projects in cooperation with local and international institutions/organizations; research projects in cooperation with local and international NGOs, institutes, and universities. CAF has created cooperation with some major partners, including: the Economic Commission of the National Assembly; the Ministry of Labor, Invalids and Social Affairs; the World Bank; United Nations Development Programme (UNDP); International Development Research Centre (IDRC-Canada); Department of International Development, University of Oxford; The Ford Foundation; Overseas Development Institute (ODI – UK); etc…
Although the Centre was founded recently, it has proved an important position among socio-economic research institutions in Vietnam. Furthermore, the Centre for Analysis and Forecasting has also made certain contributions in three areas: research, training and policy recommendation.
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Contribution in the field of research
Firstly, it is necessary to mention here CAF’s contributions through research programs/projects at the State and Ministerial level. It has successfully accomplished many State-level and Ministerial-level projects, such as: Measures to improve development of provinces, cities and enterprises after Vietnam joined the WTO (the State-level project, 2005 - 2008); Analysis and Assessment of Vietnam’s Economy for the 2006 – 2008 period and the forecast of development for the 2009 – 2010 period (the Ministerial-level project, 2008 – 2010); Analysis and Forecast of the global economic crisis impacts and coping measures of Vietnam in 2009 (the Ministerial-level project, 2009); Analysis and Forecast of the global economic crisis impacts and coping measures of Vietnam in 2010 (the Ministerial-level project, 2010); Some measures for macro-economic stabilization to improve Vietnam’s sustainable economic growth for the 2011 – 2015 (the Ministerial-level project, 2011). Besides, the Centre has also carried out a lot of research works in cooperation with local and overseas institutions/organizations. A number of research findings have been published in form of articles in local and overseas professional journals as well as in form of books (in both English and Vietnamese) that are highly appreciated by readers.
In addition, the Centre has also built a forecasting model and a database to forecast short-term and medium-term macroeconomic indicators, which are used as the input of reports to be submitted by the president of VASS to leaders of the Communist Party and Government.
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Contributions in the field of training
As a research institution, the Centre frequently holds short-term training courses within the framework of international cooperation projects. These short-term training courses aim at providing modern research techniques and skills needed in writing research as well as policy recommendation reports for junior researchers and lecturers from different research institutions and universities all over Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia.
For junior researchers in CAF, the Centre pays special attention to improvement of their research capacity through in-project training activities. This type of capacity building has been effectively applied at the Centre: junior researchers have to take part in the Centre’s programs/projects; they are assigned to carry out a part of a research project under the supervision of CAF senior researchers or international experts. Owing to this, junior researchers have indeed improved their research capacity a lot.
Besides, the Centre has provided PhD training opportunities for its junior researchers within its cooperation with international institutions/organizations. Some of them have taken PhD training courses in France, according to the training coordination model, in which students spend some time studying overseas and some time studying in Vietnam.
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Contributions in the field of policy recommendation
For recent years, CAF has made contributions towards policy recommendations submitted by VASS to the Communist Party and Government, especially for the period of economic fluctuations caused by the international financial crisis and the global economic decline. Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences often prepares reports to be used at the Government monthly meetings as well as economic bulletins, as requested by the Economic Commission of the National Assembly. Consequently, the Centre’s analyses and assessments of Vietnam’s economy are used as an important input for the reports.
Based on the above-mentioned advantages, during the coming years till 2020, the Centre will focus on following activities:
1. To maintain activities as a research institution with the three key areas, including:
a. Research
- The Centre will carry out successfully research programs/projects at the State-level and the Ministerial level.
- It will also strengthen research cooperation with international organizations and local as well as overseas institutes and universities.
- At the same time, it will perform research contracts with domestic and international partners.
CAF will strive for achievements of high quality in its research works, of which the findings will be published in form of books and research papers in professional journals inside and outside Vietnam.
b. Policy recommendation
To develop previous achievements gained in the field of policy recommendation for recent years, the Centre will focus on analyzing and forecasting Vietnam’s economic prospects, which will be used by VASS as an input for preparation of reports to be submitted to the Communist and Government leaders.
c. Training
- The Centre will pay more attention to capacity training of its junior researchers through the in-project training activities.
- It will carry out training for junior researchers at CAF as well as those in other institutions, based on activities within the framework of research cooperation projects with local and international partners.
2. To build a powerful institution
A favorable working environment, which is democratic, unanimous, united and sharing, has been gradually created at CAF. And, this really enables the Centre to perform effectively all its tasks.
3. To strengthen professional linkages with local and international partners.
The Centre has developed an extensive network of collaborators. As the number of researchers at the Centre is just few, its effective cooperation with specialists from other institutions/organizations is very significant so that the Centre can carry out successfully scientific projects, programs and contracts. To strengthen those professional linkages is, therefore, one of the key strategic orientations of the Centre for Analysis and Forecasting for the coming years.
The Centre for Analysis and Forecast
