Implementing the annual duties and tasks, Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences has done the research and offered the evaluation as well as implemented the series of monthly reports on “World and Vietnam Economy” as the advised documents and opinions for Government in making and instructing economic policies. According to the research results, authors have edited and released the book “World and Vietnam Economy 2013 – 2014: Overcome the challenges for recovery and growth.”
The contents are presented in 3 chapters.Chapter 1: World Economy 2013 and Prospect in 2014. In 2013, the world economy has had many positive changes in comparison with previous period. This has contributed to build a good foundation for the recovery and getting back the stability for 2014. The development of world and Vietnam showed a better stability in 2013. Some economies which were the center of crisis have experienced positive changes such as Greece, Spain and Ireland. Two leading economies, which are Germany and France, had a low growth as 0.5% and 0.2% respectively. Japanese economy has achieved a growth with the rate of 1.5% in 2013 which has marked down the remarkable improvement after no growths in many recent years.
Since middle of 2013, global economy has had the recovery with a more stable macro conditions even this recovery is not equally. After crisis, however, it still put the world economy in a new growth orbit which is more stable but at a lower degree than previous period. After crisis, there is no stable in the global industry and manufacture with low speed of recovery except the East Asian Pacific (including China). International commerce is better than in 2013 and will keep developing in 2014 at a low level. Prices of basic products went down due to low demand together with the decrease in producing works and consumption. Industrial activities have positive signals which will make prices of some input materials asmetal, mineral;fuel so on will have a slight increase. Jobs and social security will be the worries for governments in 2014. The long term unemployment hasbeen the reason of the instable society, worsen the working skills, and create the burden on aid system for unemployment and social security in many countries. The unemployment of young generation, particularly in Europe, is even more serious when it might create a new social crisis when facing with the stress of migration and border opening.
Global financial market is stable and less risky in 2013 and will be improved in 2014. Fed is removing solutions to loosen quantitative and this did not create big shocks in global security market even there are negative impacts on new raising economies. The reason is the increasing price of USD in short term and capital flow outside of America is changing its direction.
Chapter 2: Overview Vietnamese economy 2013and prospects in 2014. In 2013, the macro economy of Vietnam is getting stable when Vietnamese economy rose from the bottom point and started to recover and grow in a new period. This result is due to solutions of Government on stabilizing the economy implemented since 2011 together with policy adjustments in 2013. Vietnam is trying to implement three more restructuring projects including restructuring public investment, restructuring governmental cooperation and restructuring banking system. These will build a foundation for the development in long term of the economy. Targets are highly hard to achieve when the implementation faces a lot of challenges. Also, Vietnam has deeply integrated to the world economy and been having negotiations about free trade agreements. This requires more effort for domestic reformations so that it could meet demand of international agreements; especially those are applied in standards of a modern market economy with freedom in competition. Challenges and duties of 2014 are to overcome barriers so that Vietnam can make breakthroughs, improve the Renewals and develop the economy.
Chapter 3: Recommendation for policies. Authors have offer recommendations for policies, for example:
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To increase the growth rate and control the inflation;
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To implement monetary policy and exchange rate policy to attract more investment capital and increase the exports;
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To implement fiscal policy to be stable and sustainable;
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To create jobs, improve income and ensure social security;
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To ensure the close collaboration with management of macroeconomic policies in the period of 2014 to 2015;
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To speed up the restructuration of economy, reform the mechanism and improve the management ability of State as well as complete the market mode
Hopefully this book will provide readers useful information about world and Vietnam economy which have scientific values and could be used in practice.
Nguyen Thu Ha
