Speaking at the seminar, Assoc.Prof.Dr. Bui Nhat Quang, President of Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences said: By the end of 2020, Vietnam has achieved a "dual goal" that is effective anti-epidemic, economic recovery and development. Vietnam's results in the prevention of the Covid-19 epidemic are highly appreciated by the international community, while the number of Covid-19 cases in the world is more than 95 million and the number of deaths has exceeded 2 million. Vietnam's results in the prevention of the Covid-19 epidemic are highly appreciated by the international community, while the number of Covid-19 cases in the world is more than 95 million and the number of deaths has exceeded 2 million. That shows that by 2020 the world economy has been overshadowed by the Covid-19 epidemic. As of January 17, 2021, the world had recorded more than 95 million Covid-19 infections, including more than 2 million deaths. Covid-19 has a strong impact on world economic growth in 2020. Most major economies - except China - have negative growth rates such as: the US - 5.9%; UK - 6.5%; EU -7.5%. Although the economic growth rate for the whole of 2020 has reached 2.91%, the lowest level since the Doi Moi in 1986, the growth rate has recovered impressively after the decline in the second quarter of 2020 and at a high level compared with many countries in the world and the region.
Therefore, the seminar is an opportunity for experts and scientists to evaluate Vietnam's economy in 2020; Vietnam's economic growth prospects and forecast in 2021; At the same time, proposing many solutions to promote economic growth in the post-Covid-19 period based on creative innovation and digital transformation, etc. According to the draft Vietnam Economic Report 2020, the Covid-19 has different impacts by industry group. Meanwhile, the non-contact economic sectors (14 industries, most of the digital economy) suffered the most strongly, especially distance education, electronic payment... and industries with input from oil/gas products. These multidimensional impacts promote restructuring as well as cutting business costs and changing corporate governance across industries.
Speaking at the Workshop, Assoc.Prof.Dr. Bui Quang Tuan, Director of the Vietnam Economic Institute, indicates that although the Covid-19 in the world continues to be unpredictable, the positive signs are gradually becoming clear. Covid-19 preventive vaccine started to be vaccinated in some countries such as India, Indonesia, and Switzerland and will expand to many other countries in 2021. The economic support package is also being implemented by many major countries and will have an effective impact in 2021. Therefore, the world economy will gradually warm up, leading to investment and trade activities of our economy.
According to the forecast model of the Vietnam Economic Institute: GDP growth in 2021 of Vietnam is expected to reach 5.49% (base scenario), 6.9% (high scenario) and 3.48% (low scenario). The ability to achieve real growth depends on the world economic situation and the increased capacity to absorb foreign direct investment (FDI). Accordingly, forecasts of international organizations and the growth target set by the Government of Vietnam will reach a high scenario level when the world economy grows strongly, stable oil prices will support growth and improve the domestic economy to absorb FDI.
The participants said that in the coming period, Vietnam should note some important policy implications that need to focus on addressing issues such as: It is necessary to identify and answer questions related to which factors have helped Vietnam succeed in achieving the dual goal of 2020? Will those factors continue into 2021? It is important to avoid subjective thinking that Vietnam is in the highest growth group, which means solving many problems in growth structure and quality; Changing our mindset, turning IT and digital transformation is an important push and foundation to support the recovery and growth process towards efficiency, green and sustainable; Vietnam is facing a golden opportunity to break through and accelerate thanks to science and technology and asymptotic to the innovation stage (5G technology, digital transformation, Nano technology,etc); This is a rare opportunity for Vietnam to narrow the gap with other countries in the region; Innovating thinking and innovating policy institutions towards creating a favorable environment, strongly encouraging and mobilizing the participation of the non-state sector is the most important factor for science and technology to development as well as an essential resource for investment in science, technology and innovation.
Summarizing the seminar, Assoc.Prof.Dr. Bui Quang Tuan warmly acknowledged the results of the seminar and said that Vietnam needs to promote the development and early implementation of a digital transformation strategy in combination with new economic stimulus packages, solutions to restructure related industries. At the same time, develop and implement regulations and solutions to promote effective and secure digital transformation such as digital security, articulating labor standards and criteria in the digital and traditional sectors, and need more breakthrough experiments on institutions and policies to ensure the legitimacy when receiving State support in the context that the whole world is under many impacts from Covid-19.
Pham Vinh Ha
